mbs thesis nepal

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Mbs thesis nepal essay on community policing

Mbs thesis nepal

Weston and Copeland writ e if the return on the individual investment fluctuates by exactly the same degree as the returns on the returns of the market as a whole, the beta for the security is one. Cheney and Moses further describe that standard deviation contains two parts diversifiable and non-diversifiable risk. Sys thematic risk can be diversified away by combining the assets with a portfolio of other assets. Further, they have explained that systematic risk is the ratio between covariance j, m and standard deviation of the market.

Unsystematic risk has been defined as product of standard deviation of assets and the 1-Pjm. But Weston and Copeland has defined that systematic risk is the product of b and Var Rm, t and unsystematic risk Var.

Fisher and Jordan define systematic risk as portion of total variability in return caused economic, political and social changes. Weston and Copeland described that if that if the un-diversifiable or systematic risk in return of an investment is greater than for the market portfolio, then the beta of the individual investment is greater than one, and its risk adjustment factor is greater than the risk adjustment factor for the market as a whole.

The beta for individual security reflects industry characteristics and management policies that determine how returns fluctuate in relation to variations in overall market returns. If the general economic environment is stable, if industry characteristics remain unchanged and management policies have continuity, the measure of beta will be relatively stable when calculated for different time periods.

However, if these conditions of stability do not exit, the value of beta will vary. Sharpe et al define risk as the divergence of an actual return from an expected return and identified standard deviation as a measurement of such divergence. Sapkota measured systematic risk fro beta.

He has identified the portfolio beta to be 0. Pradhan has analyzed the stocks of six finance companies, six insurance companies including Soaltee Hotel and Necon Air in terms of the risk measured through standard deviation, CV and beta. His study has revealed the least CV of Kathmandu finance company and has identified this stock has least volatile. Manandhar has used the standard deviation, coefficient of variance and the beta tools for the measurement of the risk associated in the stocks of five different stocks of commercial banks.

She has identified the BOK stocks as the most risky stocks with its standard deviation and CV of returns 1. Further her research has shown that the BOK possesses the highest value of beta as 2. Shrestha carried out risk return analysis of the eight commercial banks where he has computed highest standard deviation for the stocks of BOK and least standard deviation of Himalayan bank limited HBL.

A part from this, his study has identified the negative beta for the stocks of SBI. Weston and Copeland describe about the three possible attitudes towards risk, a desire for risk, an aversion to risk and indifference to risk. They further described the utility theory where he has mad e explanations to the diminishing marginal utility for wealth.

According to him, someone with a diminishing marginal utility fir wealth will get more pain from a dollar lost than pleasure from a dollar gained. Most investor as opposed to people who habitually gamble appears to have diminishing marginal utility for wealth and this directly affects their attitude towards risk.

He has written about the indifference curve describing that each points of the indifference curve shows the combination of mean and standard deviation of returns which give a risk averse investor the same total utility. They write portfolio with 1 to infinity of assets will have decreasing pattern of the expected portfolio variance. They have supported this interpretation through an artificial example and concluded as more and more securities are added, the average variance on portfolio declines until it approaches the average covariance.

They further write effectiveness of diversification in reducing the risk of a portfolio varies from country to country. The average covariance relative to the variance varies from country to country. Thus in Switzerland and Italy securities have relatively high covariance indicating that stocks tend to move together. On the other hand, the security market in Belgium and in the Netherlands tends to have stocks with relatively low covariance.

For these latter security markets, much more of the risk of holding individual securities can be diversified away. Diversification is especially useful in reducing the risk on the portfolio in these markets. Pradhan constructed the portfolio of three assets, viz.

The weights he identified are purely on the 13 Apart from this he has also made the portfolio of two assets taking the stocks of the Paschimanchal finance company and citizen investment trust with weights 0. Simple diversification Simple diversification is the random selection of securities that are to be added to a portfolio. Evans and Archer made sixty different portfolio of each size from randomly selected New York Stock Exchange NYSE stocks and proved the decrease in the un-diversifiable risk with increase in the number of securities in the portfolio.

They made the portfolio from the randomly selected securities and allocated equal weights. In this context, Clarkes adds that superfluous diversification usually result in the following portfolio management problems. Diversification across industries Another diversification can be experienced from the combination of the stocks from different industries.

The basic principle of diversifying assets across the industries is the losses incurred in one stock can be compensated through the gain realized from the profitable stocks. Their study consists of six diversified portfolio each containing 20 equally weighted common stocks that all have identical quality ratings.

Their empirical study supported the economic theory, which suggest that risk- adverse investors should require higher average rates of return in order to induce them to assume higher levels of risk s. They concluded their study, as the highest quality portfolio of randomly diversified stocks was able to achieve lower levels of risk than the simply diversified portfolios of lower quality stocks.

This result reflected the fact that default risk as measured by the quality ratings is part of total risk. Their findings suggested that portfolio managers could reduce portfolio risk to levels lower than those attainable with simple diversification by not diversifying across lower-quality assets. Through indifferences curves, it is possible for an investor to determine the various combinations of expected returns and risks that provide a constant utility.

The sets of mean variance indifference curves are literally a theory of choice. Indifference curves cannot intersect. Last, he further describes that an investor has an infinite number of indifference curves. Sharpe, Treynor, Mossin and linter originally developed security market line or the capital assets pricing model CAPM equation. SML shows the picture of market equilibrium. Weston and Copeland explain SML provides a unique relationship between un-diversifiable risk measured by beta and expected return.

Capital asses pricing model is an equilibrium theory of how to price and measure risk. Logic of the security market line is that the required return on any investment is the risk-free return plus a risk-adjusted factor. They have given the model for the risk adjustment factor as the product of risk premium required for the market return and the risk of the individual investment.

Brigham and Aweston n. Rather they cause parallel shifts in the SML. It assumes equilibrium where required rate of return is equal to the expected rate of return. He concludes all the stocks are under priced. Efficient frontier Collections of possible portfolios are the attainable sets.

Cheney and Moses define at any given level of risk or return, however there is no one portfolio that provides the highest lowest level of expected return or risk. This set of portfolio that dominates all other portfolio in the attainable set is referred to as the efficient frontier.

They further add once the investor has determined the expected returns and standard deviations for each of the assets and correlation coefficients between the assets, then the portfolios on the efficient frontier can be identified. Estimation of the efficient frontier requires quadratic programming that will simultaneously estimate the minimum portfolio risk at each level of expected return.

Olsen writes when only common stocks are considered as components of portfolio on the efficient frontier, a sample size of several hundred randomly selected securities will provide an estimate of the efficient frontier not significantly different from the frontier obtained by using the entire universe of common stocks. Elton and Gruber , in this context, write for the convex figure of efficient frontier infinite number of possibilities must be considered.

Fisher and Jordan describe that all investor will end up with portfolios somewhere along CML and all efficient portfolios would lie along CML. However, not all securities or portfolios lie along the CML. From the derivation of the efficient frontier we know that all portfolios, except those that are efficient, lay below the CML. Observing the CML tells us something about the market price of risk.

Investment performance evaluation Sharpe devised an index of portfolio performance. His model is generally accepted as single parameter portfolio performance index and can be calculated from the both risk and return statistics. This technique ranks the stocks from its excess return-to-beta ratio. Jansen has developed another performance measure by modifying the characteristic regression line.

His 18 Markowitz used the variance of return as the measure of risk. The risk of the portfolio is not the weighted average of the variance of the expected returns of the individual assets in the portfolio however. Estimating portfolio risk in this way would obscure the effect of combining assets with different returns patterns in a portfolio.

Portfolio expected return and risk will be explained and illustrate in the next sections. The portfolio model developed by Markowitz is base on the following reasonable assumptions: 1. The expected return form an assets is the mean value of a probability distribution of future returns over some holding period. The risk of an individual assets or portfolio is based on the variability of returns.

Investors depend solely on there estimates of return and risk in making their investment decisions. This means that an investor utility indifference curves are only the function of expected return and risk. Investors adhere to the dominance principle.

That is, for any given level of risk, investor prefer assets with a higher expected return for assets with same expected return investors prefer lower to higher risk. According to Markowitz, the expected return of the portfolio is the weighted average of the expected returns of the individual assets in the portfolio. The weights are proportion of the investor wealth invested in each asset, and sum of the weights must be equal one.

According to Markowitz, the portfolio risk is measured by either variance or the standard deviation of returns. This model was developed in A. The CAPM is simple in the concept and has real world applicability. It allows us to draw certain implications about risk and the size of the risk premium necessary to compensate for bearing a risk. All the investors are risk-averse. Thus all the investors seek to be on the efficient frontier.

There are no constraints on the amount of money that can be borrowed. Borrowing and lending occurs at the identical risks-free rate. All investors have identical belief about the expected returns and risk of assets and portfolios; that is, all investors have homogeneous expectations. All investors have a common investment horizon, whether it is on month, three month, one year or whatever.

All investors are infinitely divisible and marketable; that is it possible to buy or sell any portion of an asset or portfolio. Taxes and transaction costs do not exist. That is there are no tax effects, costs of acquiring information or transecting costs associated with buying or selling securities. These are often referred to as perfect market assumptions. Market assumed to be competitive therefore the same investment opportunities are available to all investors. There are no unanticipated changes in inflation or interest rates.

The capital markets are in a same state equilibrium or striving toward equilibrium, there are no under pricing or overpricing exists, the prices will move to correct this disequilibrium situation. Such a reservation on the part of the user called for a new model.

The CAPM assumes that the rate of return on a security is influenced by only one factor that is the average market performance. The Fk is the mean zero random of k factor and it is the deviation of realized value from the expected value. The error term ej is the unique or systematic risk which can be eliminated through diversification and does not affect the stock rate of return.

Such transactions are called arbitrage and they allow market participants to make profit without investment and without assuming any risk through short selling and buying long for the amount equivalent to the short selling. Such opportunities rarely exist in an efficient market and no one can benefit from arbitrage transactions. Otherwise, prices will continue to change until the expected return from such transactions is zero.

Therefore the expected arbitrage profit is zero the long if the market functions efficiently. The ATP states that if no arbitrage opportunity exists in the market, the asset pricing is a function of risk free rate and a set of relevant factor to risk premium. It is, therefore, true that ATP is not different from CAPM which also states that return on security is equal to risk free and risk premium for the market related factor. Similar to CAPM, only the set of systematic risk is priced in he above model, and no price is assigned for the diversifiable risk.

The risk premium for systematic risk of each factor is determined as the market price per unit of risk multiplied by the degree of factors systematic risk. Review of Articles 22 There are not many articles published relating to portfolio management of commercial banks of Nepal.

However there are some of the articles related to portfolio management which have been summarized below Mr. He is however, confronted with problems of managing investment portfolio particularly in times of economic slowdown like ours. A rational investor would like to diversify his investments in different classes of assets so as to minimize risks and earn a reasonable rate of return.

Commercial banks have continuously been reducing interest rates on deposits. Many depositors are exposed to the increasing risk of non-refund of their deposits because of the mismanagement in some of the banks and financial institutions and accumulation of huge non performing assets with them Few depositors of cooperative societies lost their deposits because some of these cooperatives were closed down because of their inability to refund public deposits.

An investor in days of crisis has to make an effort to minimize the risk and at least earn a reasonable rate of return on his aggregate investment. An investment in equity share an earn dividend income as well as capital gain in the form of bonus share and right share until an investor holds it and capital profit when he sells it in stock market. As returns from equity investments have fluctuated within a very wide range, investor feels it much difficult to balance risk and reward in their equity portfolio.

As a matter of fact, investors in equity shares should invest for a reasonable long time frame in order to manage the risk. Making investment in fixed deposits with commercial banks is a normal practice among the common people.

Normally fixed deposits with banks are considered risk less but they also are not hundred percent of free of risk. You should select the bank to put your deposits therein, which has sound financial health and high credibility in banking business.

In times of crisis if you select a sick bank to deposit your money there is high probability that your money could not be returned back. An investor may have the option of making investment in Government bonds or debentures. In history we have examples that government can nationalize the private property of its citizens, cancel out currency notes, can covert the new investment into some conditional instrument. But in democracy there is no probability that the government would default to repay money back.

This is comparatively risk free investment, but yields low return. An investor has to evaluate the risk and rerun of each of the investment, alternatives and select an alternative, which ahs lower degree of risk and offer at least reasonable rate of return.

One can draw a safe side conclusion to invest all the money he has only in government securities but this is not a rational decision. An investor who does not try to maximize return by minimizing the possible risk is not a rational investor. On the other hand one can lace over confidence on equity investment and assume high risk by investing the whole money in equity shares. Stock market these days is much dwindling and notoriously unpredictable therefore this too is not a wise decision.

Therefore portfolio, which consists of only one class of financial assets, is not a good portfolio. For fulfilling those aspects, the following strategies will be adopted. He has mentioned short transitory view on portfolio management in Nepalese commercial banks. Now a days number of banks and financial institution are operating in this sector are having greater network and access to national and international markets.

They have to go with their portfolio management very seriously and superiority, to get success to increase their regular income as well as to enrich the quality service to their clients. In this competitive and market oriented open economy, each commercial banks and financial institution has to play a determining role by widening various opportunities for the sake of expanding of best service to their customers.

In this context he has presented two types of investment analysis techniques i. He has suggested that the banks having international joint venture network can also offer admittance to global financial markets. He has pointed out the requirements of skilled labors, proper management information system MIS in joint venture banks and financial institution to get success in portfolio management and customer assurance. According to Mr. Shrestha, the portfolio management activities of Nepalese commercial banks at present is in nascent stage.

However, on the other hand most of banks are not doing such activities so far because of following reasons. Such as unawareness of the client about the service available, hesitation of taking risk by the client to use such facilities, lack of proper techniques to run such activities in the best and successful manner, less development of capital market and availability of few financial investment in the financial market.

He has given the following conclusion for smooth running and operation of commercial banks and financial institution. Banking and financial service are among the fastest growing industries in developed world and are also emerging as cornerstones for other developing and underdeveloped nations as well. Bank primary function is to trade risk. Risk cannot be avoided by the bank but can only be managed. There exist two types of risk.

The first is the diversifiable risk or the firm specific risk which can be mitigated by maintaining an optimum and diversified portfolio. This is due to the fact that when one sector does optimum and diversified portfolio. This is due to the fact that when one sector does no do well the growth in another might offset the risk.

Thus depositor must have the knowledge of the sectors in which there banks have make the lending. The second is un- diversifiable risk and it is correlated across borrower, countries, and industries. Such risk is not under control of the firm and bank. Thapa risk management of the banks is not only crucial for optimum trade off between risk and profitability but is also one of the deciding factors for overall business investment lending to growth of economy.

Managing risk not only needs sheer professionalism at the organization level but appropriate environments also need to develop. Some of the major environment problems Nepalese banking sector is under government intervention, relatively weak regulatory fame, if we consider the international standard, meager corporate governance and the biggest of all is lack of professionalism.

The only solution to mitigate the banking risk is to develop the badly needed commitment eradication of corrupt environment especially in the disbursement of lending, and formulate prudent and conducive regulatory frame work. Mahat, in his article he has accomplished, the efficiency of banks can be measured using different parameters. The concept of productivity and profitability can be applied while evaluating efficiency of banks.

The term productivity refers to the relationship between the quantity of inputs employed and the quantity of outputs produced. An increase in productivity means that more output can be produced from the same inputs or the same outputs can be produced from fewer inputs. Interest expense to interest income ratio shows the efficiency of banks in mobilizing resource at lower cost and investing in high yielding assets.

In other words, it reflects the efficiency in use of funds. Mahat, the analysis of operational efficiency of banks will help one in understanding the extant of vulnerability of banks under the changed scenario and deciding whom to bank 25 This may also help the inefficient banks to upgrade their efficiency and be winner in the situations developing due to slowdown in the economy.

The regulators should also be concerned on the fact that the banks with unfavorable ratio may bring catastrophe in the banking industry. Debt securities market in the Nepal is highly dominated by government debt securities. Govinda Bahadur Thapa has expressed his view that the commercial banks including foreign joint venture banks seem to be doing pretty well in mobilizing deposits.

Likewise loans and advances of banks are also increasing. But compared to high credit needs particularly by the newly emerging industries, the banks still to lack adequate funds. Out of the commercial banks, Nepal bank ltd. Because of non-recovery of the accrued interest, the margin between interest, income and interest expenses is declining.

There banks have not been able to increase their income from commission and discount. On the contrary, they have got heavy burden of personal and administrative overheads. Similarly due to accumulated over due and defaulting loans, profit position of three banks has been seriously affected on the other banks have been functioning in venture banks have been functioning in an extremely efficient way.

They are making huge profit year and have been disturbing large amount of bonus and dividends to employees and shareholders. According to him, the joint venture banks concentrate to modern off balance sheets operations and efficient personal management has to add to the maximization of their profits.

According to her, investment of commercial banks when analyzed individually, were observed that Nepalese domestic banks invest 26 On the basics of this study she found that the supply of the bank credit was expected to depend on total deposit, lending rate, bank rate, lagged variables and the dummy variables, similarly demand of bank credit was assumed to be effected by national income, lending rate, treasury bill rate and other variables.

The resources of commercial banks were expected to be related with variables like total deposit, cash reserves requirement, and bank rate and lending rate. Review from Journal Some related journals to our study have been taken into account. Portfolio management must be interwoven into multitudes of other business activities, processes and discipline in order to really be effective.

One final item to consider in context for portfolio management is the nature of corporate culture and its people. This people element is the one many companies fail to consider or understand fully, but it is often the one, which presents the greatest implementation barrier when companies attempt to start doing portfolio management.

Portfolio management has been studied, documented and discussed for decades. Some companies have done an excellent job of establishing and maintaining core competencies in this key business function. But today more then ever, companies are challenged to learn and apply the full discipline of life cycle portfolio management. As market and competitive pressures continue to increase especially in times of economic uncertainty the needs for good portfolio management becomes more pressing.

However, these same market and competitive pressures often cause companies to miss the critical role of portfolio management as they cut corners in budgets and people, putting their emphasis and their hopes more and more on individual new projects instead of taking a more holistic approach to overall business management.

Returns might appear predictable 27 But saver can neither perceive nor exploits this certainty. Returns appear excessively volatile even though prices react efficiently to cash flows news. They conclude the parameter uncertainty can be important for characterizing and testing market efficiency. Financial economists generally assume that, unlike themselves, investor knows the mean, variance, and the covariance of the cash flow process.

Practitioners do not have this luxury. To apply the elegant frame work of modern portfolio theory, they must estimate the process using whatever information is available. However, Black so memorably observe, the world is a noisy place, their observations are necessarily imprecise. The literatures an estimation risk formalize this problem, but it seems to have had little impact on mainstream thinking about Assets Pricing and Market Efficiency. They believe that this is due, in part, to its focus on the subjective believes of investor rather than the empirical properties of returns.

They show that learning can significantly affect assets pricing tests. Prices in their model satisfy that commonly accepted nations of market efficiency and rational expectation, investor use all available information when making decision and, in equilibrium, the perceived pricing functions equals the true pricing function, in spite of this, the empirical properties of returns differ significantly from the properties perceived by investor.

Excess returns can appear to be predictable even though investor perceive a constant risk premium; prices can appear to be too volatile even though investor attempt to hold mean variance efficient portfolios. Put simply, empirical test can find patterns in returns the rational investor can neither perceive nor exploit. It is important to note that predictability is but to some spurious estimation problem. Rather, it is a feature of true data generation process.

This means that parameter uncertainty can affect empirical test in surprising ways. We find, for example, that an implement able replicating the strategy in real time is expected to generate abnormal profits. An econometrician replicating the strategy in real time is to find in a frequenters sense, risk-adjusted profits.

A similar phenomenon explains why investor can not use cross sectional predictability to beta the market. The puzzle highlights the distinction betweens the repeated sampling perspective of empirical test and conditionally perspective of investment decision.

It also shows how difficult or might be to construct valid Assets Pricing Test in the presence of parameter uncertainty. The fact parameter uncertainty might explain observed assets pricing anomalies does not of course, mean that it dais. Their simulations suggest that learning might be important, but empirical tests are necessary to draw strong conclusion.

The assets market efficiency, the researcher may, in effect, need to copy the Bayesian-updating process of rational investor to determine whether the patterns observed due to the data could no exploited, this is not an easy task; it would necessarily require some judgment about the learning process and what up a reasonable past.

This observation is suggestive of fames critique of assets Pricing Test. He emphasis that empirical test always entail a joint hypothesis of market efficiency and model of perceived expected returns. Their study suggests that empirical test may also require an assumption about prior beliefs. The role of prior beliefs and learning is typically ignored, but it might be critical for understanding anomalies.

This article examines the 28 Compared to developed market the correlation between most emerging market and stock market has been historically low and until recently many emerging country restricted investment by foreign investor. He attempts two sets of question to answer by this solution.

Many emerging stock market have firms with multiple shares are treated as single value weighted portfolio of the outstanding equity securities. He concludes that the return factors in emerging market are quantitatively similar to those in developed markets.

The low correlation between the country returns factor suggest that the premiums have a strong local character. Furthermore, global exposure cannot explain the average factors returns of emerging market. There is little evidence that correlation between the local factor portfolios have increased which suggests that factors responsible for increase of emerging market country relation are separated from those that derive the difference between expected return with in these market.

A Bayesian analysis of premiums in developed and emerging market shows that unless on e has stronger prior believes to the contrary, the empirical evidence favors the hypothesis that the size, momentum and value strategic are compensated for expected returns around the world. At last, the paper documents the relationship between expected return and share turnover examine the turnover characteristic of local return factor portfolio.

There is no evidence of a relation between expected return and turnover in emerging market. However, beta, size and momentum and value are positively cross section ally correlated with turnover in emerging markets. This suggests that the returns premiums do not simply reflect compensation for liquidity. The journal of finance published bimonthly by American Finance Association for many decades is taken out into account. Greet Rouwenhorst has been received here.

There is growing empirical that multiple factors are cross sectional correlated with average return in the United States. Measured over long time, small stock earns higher average return than large stock Bank The evidence that beta is also compensated for in average return is weaker.

The interpretation of the evidence is strongly debated. Some believe that premiums are compensation pervasive risk factors. Other attributes them to form characteristics of insufficiency in the way market incorporated information into prices.

Yet other averages that survivorship or data snooping may bias the premiums. The paper examines the source of return variation in emerging stock markets. From the perspective of collecting independents samples, emerging market countries are particularly interesting because of their relative isolations from the capital market of other countries. Compared to developed markets as historically been low Harvey, and until recently many emerging countries restricted investment by foreign investors.

Interestingly, Bekaert and Harvey find that despite the recent trend toward abolition of these restriction and substantial inflows of foreign capital. Some emerging equity markets have actually become more segmented from world capital markets. A large portion of the equity capital o f emerging economics is held by local investors who are likely to evaluate their portfolios in the light of local economic and market condition. On the above background Rouwenhorst attempts to answer two sets of questions.

About the data Rouwenhorst stated that as of April, the emerging market. Eleven countries are excluded because of insufficient return histories, which leave firms in 20 countries that the IFC tracks for at least seven years. For some month closing process and dividends is available dating back to Many emerging markets have firms with multiple classes of shares carrying different ownership restriction. Forms with multiple shares classes are treated as single value weighted portfolio of the outstanding equity securities.

The first conclusion is that the return factors in emerging markets are qualitatively similar to those in developed market small stock outperform growth stocks and emerging markets stock exhibit momentum. There is no evidence that the local markets betas are associated with the average returns. The low correlation between the country return factors suggests that the premiums have a strong local character.

Furthermore global exposures cannot explain the average factor returns of emerging markets. There is little evidence that the correlation between the local portfolios have increased which suggests that the factor responsible for the increase of emerging market country correlation and separate from those that drive the difference between expected returns within these markets.

A Bayesian analysis of premiums in developed and emerging markets show that unless one has strong prior beliefs to the contrary the empirical evidence favor the hypothesis that size momentum and value strategies are compensated for in expected returns and share turnover and examines the turnover characteristics of the local returns factor portfolios. There is no evidence of a relation between expected returns and turnover in emerging markets however beta size momentum and value is positively in emerging markets.

This suggests that the return premiums do not simply reflect a compensation for liquidity. This study by Rowe horst does not consider the analyzed the returns factors in worldwide stock markets. However it concentrates in the various emerging stock markets. Hence the article contributes in the article contributes in the area of risk and return analysis in common stock investment.

Apart from the primary function of receiving deposits and lending, and statutory functions specified in the Acts, banks play an important role in the economic development of a country. Commercial banks are the heart of financial system. Modern commercial bank does not stop with merely receiving and lending functions.

Doing so, they facilitate both the flow of goods and services from producers to consumers and the financial activities of the government. In a contract, performance is deemed to be the fulfillment of an obligation, in a manner that releases the performer from all liabilities under the contract.

The word 'performance' means 'the performing of an activity, keeping, in view the achievement made by it. Financial performance analysis is a study or relationship among the various financial factors in business as disclosed by a single set of statement and a study of the trend of these facts as shown in a series of statements Nirmal, By establishing a strategic relationship between the item of balance sheet and income statements and other operative data, the financial analysis unveils the meanings and significance of such items.

Financial performance is the process of measuring the results of an organization policies and operations in terms of monetary value. These results are reflected in the firm's profitability, liquidity or leverage. A well designed and implemented financial management is expected to contribute positively to the creation. Various different researchers and writers have different idea and definition about performance.

Hence, financial performance is the process of measuring the results of an organization policies and operations in terms of monetary value. In other word, financial performance analysis is a study of relationship among the various financial factors and identifying the financial strengths and weaknesses of the firm by properly establishing the relationship between the items of as disclosed by a single set of financial statement and a study of the trend of these facts as shown in a series of statements.

Financial performance analysis is a process of evaluating the relationship between components parts of a financial statement to obtain a better understanding of a firm's position and performance. The financial analysis program provides vital methodologies of financial analysis. Areas of Financial Performance Analysis: In Financial Performance Analysis, we often focus on the firm's production and productivity performance total business performance , profitability performance, liquidity performance, working capital performance, fixed assets performance and fund flow performance.

To evaluate the performance of commercial banks, various financial ratio analysis tools can be used, such as: profitability analysis, liquidity analysis, working capital analysis and financial structure analysis. Importance of Financial Performance Analysis Financial Performance Analysis unveils the financial health and stability of a firm.

It helps in determining the current position and in planning for upcoming business plan. The key factor indicating a firm's growth and future potentiality is the level of profitability achieved. So, there is a direct relationship between utilizing financial resources and the profit generation for a firm. Importance of use of financial data varies according to the specific interest of the party involved and their interest is affected by the financial performance of a firm.

So, the financial performance analysis is important for different reasons:. Time and again, they may have to take decisions whether they have to continue with the holdings of the company's share or sell them out.

The financial statement analysis is important as it provides meaningful information to the shareholders in taking such decisions. Shareholders are also interested in present and expected future earnings as well as stability of these earnings as they have invested their money on it. They, therefore, always need to evaluate its performance and effectiveness of their action to achieve the company's goal.

Therefore, staying informed about the performance of the company is crucial to the management team of firm. So, their areas of interest is focused in internal control, better financial condition and better performance where information about the present financial condition, evaluation of opportunities in relation to this current position, return on investment provided by various assets of the company etc.

They seek for the safety of their deposits. The sufficient liquidity management will in better result in performance. So, the performance of bank is important for them for making decision on whether to hold or extend the deposit limits etc.

They look for the present and expected future earnings as well as stability of these earnings, through major sources and uses of funds. Mohana suggests that the so called bank specific factors because depending on the likely impact they have on the profitability of the bank they can be reinforced positive treatment or weakened negative treatment by the management of the bank.

The major internal factors that affect performance of banks include: capital structure, asset quality, management efficiency, earning quality, liquidity, bank size, technology, human capital, loan performance and income diversification among others. These factors such as bank concentration, inflation, GDP growth, effective tax rate, interest rate, among others. Traditional performance measures are similar to those applied in other industries, with return on assets ROA , return on equity ROE or cost-to-income ratio being the most widely used.

In addition, given the. This is probably the most important single ratio in comparing the efficiency and operating performance of banks as it indicates the returns generated from the assets that bank owns. This ratio is calculated as net profit after tax divided by the total assets.

Return on equity is the return to shareholders on their equity. Siraj and Pillai describes that return on equity measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested.

The amount of net income returned as a percentage of shareholders equity. Net income is for the full fiscal year before dividends paid to common stock holders but after dividends to preferred stock. This ratio is calculated as net profit after tax divided by the average total shareholder's equity fund. The margin is set by the intermediaries at the level that covers all the costs and risks that are related to financial intermediation.

An optimal margin should generate enough income to expand the capital base as the bank expose itself to more risk. In other word, NIM is the difference between the interest income less interest expense divided by total loan and advances. NIM reflects the cost of banks intermediation services and the efficiency of the bank. This ratio is calculated as net interest income divided by the average loan and advances. Concept of Variables The relationship between bank performance and its determinants are established by testing the relationship between two dependent and independent variables from bank specific internal factors in and macroeconomic factors, which is external factor.

According to the Business Dictionary Variable is a characteristic, number, or quantity that increases or decreases over time, or takes different values in different situations. Two basic types are 1 Independent variable: that can take different values and can cause corresponding changes in other variables, and 2 Dependent variable: that can take different values only in response to an independent variable.

As per the objective and the design our study, the relationship of performance of bank and the determinants are established as following:. Review of Related Studies 2. Review of Related Articles Maharjan concludes in his research that capital adequacy and liquidity position are the major determinants of profitability of Nepalese commercial banks. He has conducted the research to examine the impact of bank specific and. Capital adequacy, credit risk, liquidity position and bank size are used as bank specific variables and macroeconomic variables include inflation and gross domestic product growth rate.

The study was based on secondary data of 19 banks with observations for the period of to The result shows that return on assets, return on equity and net interest margin are positively related with capital adequacy, credit risk, and bank size. Likewise, inflation and gross domestic product have positive relationship with bank profitability measure return on assets and return on equity but negative relationship with net interest margin.

Pradhan and Parajuli studied about the effect of capital adequacy and cost income ratio on the performance of Nepalese commercial banks. They had found the evidence for a positive relationship of bank size with return on asset ROA , which mean larger the banks, higher would be the ROA.

On the other hand, the study observed that there is a negative relationship of capital adequacy, equity capital with ROA. This means that higher the capital adequacy lower would be ROA. The result also showed that there is a positive relationship of capital adequacy, bank size and debt to equity ratio with ROE.

This means that higher the capital adequacy, higher would be ROE. Similarly, the study also observed that larger the bank, higher would be the ROE. This study was based on the secondary data collected from 20 Nepalese commercial banks through to leading to a total of observations. On their study, they have focused to explore the determinants of performance exposed by the financial ratios and determine the financial performance of commercial banks in Nepal through Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP based on their financial characteristics.

The financial parameters were derived by segregating five major criteria, which were Liquidity, Efficiency, Profitability, Capital Adequacy and Assets Quality. The paper emphasizes financial decision problems to have strong multi criteria character, establishes priorities for performance parameters of. They found through a sensitivity analysis that an apparent Capital Adequacy risk for Nepal Bank Limited and Rastriya Banijya Bank which has to be improved significantly.

Pandey et al. Board size, independent directors and female directors were the independent variables. Leverage and firm size were the control variables. The regression models were used to examine the Impact of board structure on financial performance of Nepalese commercial banks. They found that larger the firm size, higher would be the ROA. Board size and presence of female directors were negatively related to ROE. Therefore, larger the board size and larger the female directors, lower would be the ROE.

The result also shows that greater the number of independent directors, higher will be the ROE. Bhattarai in his study "Impact of Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Variables on Performance of Nepalese Commercial Banks" studied by defining return on asset ROA as performance measure variable with the annual data period of o While default risk, capital adequacy ratio and cost person assets as bank specific independent variables. Likewise, annual growth rate of GDP, exchange rate and inflation rate as the macroeconomic independent variables.

He has used regression models to test the impact of importance of bank specific and macro- economic variables on bank performance. In his study, the estimated regression models revealed that cost per loan assets was significantly negatively associated with banks' profitability. However, exchange rate was found significantly negatively associated to profitability. Therefore, he has concluded that the commercial banks profitability in Nepal is mainly influenced by cost per loan assets.

The macroeconomic variables were not found significant determinant during his study period. The major keywords focused on the study were Bankometer, capital adequacy, financial soundness and solvency. The aim of this study was to evaluate the financial soundness of joint venture banks and private sector banks in Nepal by using Bankometer model for the period covering secondary data from The study concludes that private sector banks are in sound solvency position in comparison to joint venture banks.

They focused their study to examine and study the comparative financial performance of 18 commercial banks taken as sample. They had used the data period from They found that public sector banks were significantly less efficient than their counterparts. Their estimation results revealed that return on assets was significantly influenced by capital adequacy ratio CAR , interest expenses to total loan and net interest margin NIM , likewise, capital adequacy ratio had considerable effect on return on equity.

The study revealed that the capital adequacy ratio, interest expenses to total loan and net interest margin were significant but had a negative effect on return on assets ROA whereas non-performing loan and credit to deposit ratio did not have any substantial effect on return on assets.

The capital. In the study, He found that except SCBNL, all remaining bank had been maintaining lower capital adequacy ratio as per the directive of central bank. Nakarmi conducted a thesis research on the topic "Non-performing assets and profitability of commercial banks in Nepal".

This shows that increase in profitability is affected by the amount on Non-Performing Assets. Main objective of his thesis was to evaluate the macroeconomic factors which influence the financial performance of the commercial banks in Kenya. On the basis of his study, he concluded that industry specific factors are regarded as a critical pointer of the financial performance of the Kenyan commercial banks.

External market structure indeed affects the financial performance of the Kenyan banks. Moreover, he argues that the impact posed macroeconomic factors on the financial performance is minimal. They found the result that higher the capital adequacy ratio, management efficiency and liquidity management, higher would be the return on equity and return on assets.

Likewise higher the GDP growth rate and inflation rate, higher would be the return on equity and return on assets. The study also indicates that higher the assets quality lower would be the return on equity and return on assets. The study also revealed that larger the capital adequacy ratio and assets quality, higher would be the net interest margin.

It also shows that higher the management efficiency, liquidity management, GDP growth rate and inflation rate, higher would be the net interest margin. The aforementioned reviews and studies represent only a preliminary survey of the relevant issue. However, the previous studies cannot be ignored as they provide the foundation for the present study. This study is continuity in research by linking the present study with the most recent data studies.

Most of the empirical researches were based on the data that were before the Nepal Rastra Banks's mandatory provision of 8 billion paid up capital on It shows that there is a scant of study based on recent data. More importantly, the time and situation are different in this study period. So, this study will be useful to all stakeholders such as managements, shareholders, depositors etc.

Research methodology refers to the various sequential steps along with the rationale of each step to be adopted by a researcher in studying a problem with certain objective in view. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the methods adopted throughout the study to accomplish the research objectives. The chapter is organized in five sections.

This chapter describes about research design, population and sample, sources of data and method of data analysis. Though, each approach has its own strengths and limitations. Moreover, certain types of social research problems call for specific approaches. Hence, in selecting an approach one should take in to account that nature of the research problem, the personal experience of the researcher and the audience for whom the report will be written.

Considering the research problem and objectives, the quantitative nature of the data collected, quantitative research approach found to be appropriate for this study. Descriptive and analytical research designs have been used in this study. They constitute the total population for the study. Convenience sampling is a type of non-probability sampling that involves the sample being drawn from that part of the population that is close to hand. Although, there are some limitations, convenience sampling can be used by almost anyone and has been around for generations.

One of the reasons that it is most often used is due to the numerous advantages it provides. This method is extremely speedy, easy, readily available, and cost effective, causing it to be an attractive option to most researchers Dudovskiy, In view of speedy collection and cost effective, this study has adopted convenience sampling technique in order to select the banks as sample.

The annual report of sample banks is the main source as well as their official website and other information related to Nepalese banking industries. Therefore, the major sources of data include following:. Since, various data obtained through different sources can't be used directly for the analysis in their original form. So, they have been re-evaluated, edited and tabulated to bring them into appropriate form for the analysis as per the demand of nature of study.

The researcher has made the collected data trust worthier getting them form authorized sources. All the gathered data have been used according to the need and requirement of this study. The data collected from annual report were in the form of raw.

They are simplified and converted into the necessary format form according to research objective in understandable manner and shown in appendices. Mainly, the profitability ratio will be calculated and tested with the bank specific and macroeconomic variables with the statistical tool correlation and regression analysis to find out their relationships. Financial Tools Since this study is related to the financial performance analysis, financial tools are more useful as they help to identify financial strength and weakness of the firm.

Although, there are various types of tools available, this research has primarily focus on Profitability ratio analysis assuming it the most suitable tools. It refers to the numerical or quantitative relationship between two variables that are comparable" Palanivelu, Moreover, it is used as a technique to quantify the relationship between two sets of financial data and provides information relation to strength and weaknesses of financial data in relation to others.

The return on assets ROA is the net income for the year divided by total assets, usually the average value over the year. It shows the efficient management at using assets to generate earnings. Siraj and Pillai Siraj and Pillai describes that Return on equity measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. Angbazo quotes that an optimal margin should generate enough income to expand the capital base as the bank expose itself to more risk.

It is expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk weighted credit exposures. Capital is one of the bank specific factors that influence the level of bank profitability. Dang concluded that capital adequacy ratio has positive relationship with banks performance. However, In Nepalese context, Poudel found significant negative association between capital adequacy ratio and bank performance.

Capital adequacy ratio is calculated dividing capital fund by risk weighted assets. As per the NRB guideline, commercial banks in Nepal must maintain the capital adequacy ratio above 10 percent. In this study, bank size has been taken as bank specific internal independent variable as it influence the performance of the bank.

Kosmidou and Zopounidis found that the negative effect of bank size on performance. The authors point out that, the bigger the bank size, the more difficult to manage it. In contrast, Masood and Ashraf had found a positive impact of bank size on performance. In the study it has been concluded conclude that a large bank size reduces costs due to economies of scale that this entails, large banks can also raise capital at a lower cost.

In this study we have employed the GDP growth rate as a measure of macroeconomic conditions. It is widely assumed that growth in GDP which growth in economic activities has positive impact on performance of banks as well, because higher GDPR growth leads to higher consumption and economic activity. Likewise, Perry has found that the effect of inflation on bank profitability depends on whether inflation is anticipated or unanticipated.

By making accurate forecast of inflation, the manager can increase the rates on loan faster than the rate at which operating cost is increasing so that inflation favorably impacts on profitability. In the situation where inflation is unanticipated, bank managers are slow in adjusting the rate on bank loans so that the rate of increase of operating cost is faster than the rate of increase of bank revenue resulting in an adverse impact on profitability.

Statistical Tools The data are analyzed with some statistical concepts, formulas and models. In this research study mean, standard deviation, correlation analysis and regression analysis are used to analyze collected data. It represents the entire data, which lies almost between the two extremes. For this reason an mean is frequently referred as a measure of central tendency.

It is calculated with following relationship:. It measures the absolute dispersion. Higher the standard deviation higher will be the variability and vice versa. In other words, it helps to analyze the quality of data regarding its variability.

It is calculate as:. Two variables are said to have correlation when the value of one variable is accompanied by the change in the value of the other. There are some major principle of correlation analysis. We have adopted. Value of 'r' is interpreted as per the strength of association as following criteria. Positive r Negative r Correlation Strength 0. For applying t distribution, the t- values are calculated first and compared with the tabulated value of t distribution at a certain level of significance for given degree of freedom.

Under those hypotheses t statistic is expressed as following:. Every value of the independent variable x is associated with a value of the dependent variable y Yale University1. On this regression analysis, Bank profitability performance variables dependent return on assets ROA , return on equity ROE , net interest margin NIM will be tested for their relationship with explanatory variables.

The explanatory variables are independent variables, which are taken from bank specific internal and macroeconomic external factors such as bank size SIZE , capital adequacy ratio CAR. Therefore, the following model has been employed for the study of relatiosnhip and effect of the study variables. As the experimenter factor changes independent variables, the effect on the dependent variable is changed and observed and recorded. Studies conducted on the determinants of banks performance use one or a combination of these ratios as a measure of performance in their analysis.

In addition, given the importance of the intermediation function for banks, net interest margin NIM is typically monitored. It remains constants unless researcher changes or it changes itself. Banks performance is affected by both internal and external factors.

Internal factors are bank specific factors over which banks management has control whereas external factors are factors over which the management of the bank lacks control. For the purpose of this study, four independent variables are included.

From these four variables, two variables are from internal and external each and assuming that, they best explain the determinants of bank performance as per our study purpose. A bank's internal environment is composed of the various elements within the organization, including management, corporate culture, Policies, leadership etc. Such performance determinants are capital structure, bank size, income diversification and operating costs which are derived from balance sheet and income statement.

Kosmidou and Zopounidis ; Masood have found the relationship between banks performance and size of the bank. Therefore, Bank size SIZE and capital adequacy ratio CAR have been taken as independent internal variables as representative variables from the bank specific independent variable for this study purpose. Macroeconomic External Independent Variables: Another group of variables impacting bank profitability performance are macroeconomic conditions and market structure control variables.

A complete economic environments of the country is the macroeconomic factors which is external factors for the banks. Shubiri and Athanasoglou et al. Therefore, GDPR and INF have been taken as independent external variables as representative variables from the macroeconomic independent variable for this study purpose.

This chapter includes analysis of collected data and their presentation. The purpose of this chapter is to analyze and elucidate the collected data to achieve the objective of the study following conversion of unprocessed data to an understandable presentation. In this chapter, the data have been analyzed and interpreted using financial and statistical tools following the research methodology dealt in the third chapter.

In the part of analysis, various tables have been used to present the data collected from various sources have been converted into the required tables according to their homogeneity. The calculated results of the analysis have been presented in the suitable forms.

Users of financial information may get an idea of it from a simple line chart of trend without digging the pile of data. From the five return on asset ROAs of five-sample bank each, a simple arithmetic mean average is calculated and made one average mean for one year up to five years. Gross domestic product growth rate GDPR and annual inflation are used as the independent macroeconomic variable for this study. The following table 4.

As it can be seen in the figure 4. Average ROE is declining continuously from ROA 2. Similarly, NIM also seen stable 3. Bank specific independent variables CAR and bank size is continuous but mild upward trend. CAR is seen One of the possible reason of this negative trend relationship between these performance indicators and bank specific independent variables can the decline in economic activities in the country due to the political instability in the country.

The trend of gross domestic product growth rate GDPR is quite irregular i. One of the possible reason of this result can be due to hope of political stability in the country,. Descriptive Statistics of Variable The descriptive statistics of the variables used in the study have been presented in Table 4. The result shows that the minimum and maximum of performance measure in terms of profitability indicators ROE, ROA and NIM along with other independent variables of sample commercial banks in Nepal.

Variable Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation ROA 1. ROE mean is However, standard deviation for ROE is highest of all other variable, which shows that deviation form center point larger in compare to other variables. ROA with mean value of 2. CAR mean is CAR of all sample bank is above the mandatory minimum requirement of 10 percent required by Nepal Rastra Bank's regulatory directive, but the deviation is also a bit higher. Average GDPR of five years study period is 4.

Similarly, INF mean 6. Each cell in the table shows the correlation between two corresponding variables www. A correlation matrix is used as a way to summarize data. This allows us a glance of which variables have correlation in which level of strength and significance.

Correlation matrix is presented as following in Table 4. This Correlation Matrix is calculated through Microsoft Excel with the input data as processed in Appendix v of this study, which has been extracted from annual reports of selected sample banks. This matrix presents the degree of relationship between two variables. Calculated coefficients of correlations have been tested for validity of significance with t-test at 0.

Independent variables are categorized into two categories- bank specific and macroeconomic variables, which is also termed as internal and external variables. Capital adequacy ratio CAR and bank size SIZE have been taken as the representative independent variables from internal bank specific factors. Likewise, gross domestic product growth rate GDPR and annual inflation rate INF have been taken as another independent variables as the representative of macroeconomic variables.

Multiple regression analysis test has been performed with MS Excel using the input data extracted from annual reports of selected sample banks. Test of significance criteria is set by comparing the P-value with common alpha level, which is 0. Table 4. Also according to the correlation's basic criteria, those variables are correlated with the strong relationship i.

Similarly, R square tells that this statistics of the model was Which indicates that about The remaining portion of the variability in the dependent variable is left unexplained by the explanatory variables used in the study. Based on the above presented result, sample independent variables except GDPR have the positive influence to return on asset but insignificant up to the level of 0.

In other word, increase in gross domestic product growth rate in 1 unit will influence in the return on asset by 0. It is evident from the above result that higher the gross domestic product growth rate will results higher the higher rate of return on asset and vice versa. This result reveals that there was a positive relationship between return on assets and those independent variables.

Thus the directional change to either ways on those independent variables will effect to change in return on asset ROA in the same direction. The empirical studies also have supported such relationship findings between return on asset ROA and independent variables. Lipunga also found that the size of the bank, management efficiency and liquidity had an impact on ROA.

Similarly, Alkhazaleh and Almsafir also had found the result that supports this study result. According to this empirical study, "large banks are assumed to have more advantages as compared to their smaller rivals and have a stronger bargaining capability and making it easier for them to get benefits from specialization and from economies of scale and scope. This correlation is strong correlation among the variables according to the correlation's basic criteria, which are in correlation with the strong relationship i.

The value of R- square was 0. The adjusted R square was 0. By analyzing the result presented in table 4. On the other hand, macroeconomic variables- gross domestic product growth rate GDPR and annual inflation rate INF have the positive coefficient with the return on equity of the sample banks, which inflation rate has significant influence at 0. In other word, inflation has affected on return on equity by 95 percent level. Manandhar et al. Similarly, Maharjan , concludes that inflation and gross domestic product have positive relationship with bank profitability measure return on assets and return on equity.

The coefficient of regression result at table 4. This indicates that the gross domestic product growth rate has a positive influence in net interest margin. So, the larger the rate of GDPR, larger will be the rate of net interest margin and vice versa.

Empirical study of Manandhar et al. It shows that bigger the size of the firm, higher would be the net interest margin. But mixed results are found for capital adequacy ratio CAR as Maharjan, , found that beta coefficients are positive for capital adequacy,.

ROE is more than a just measure of profit but it's a measure of efficiency. So, This result indicates that the shareholder's earning declining. Declining ROE shows that the shareholders' fund is not in optimum utilization by the management of the bank. However, the average of five years ROE of Average return on asset ROA and net interest margin NIM of sample banks of study period were mild upward and relatively stable.

ROA was in range of 1. Net interest margin was ranged from 2. It shows that banks are earning average of 3. Moreover, it also indicates that banks earning from interest earning assets loan and advances higher NIM 3. Profitability performance of the banks during the study period were found to be affected by the Merger and Acquisition Bylaws of Nepal Rastra Bank. This new bylaws and related directive had made a mandatory provision to lift their paid-up capital to 8 billion within 2 fiscal years onwards of announcement.

So, the banks were in pressure to raise their capital, then, managements and directors of the banks were so in focus on it. Therefore, they raised the capital by distributing the stock dividend which, resulted raise in shareholder's capital but they could not manage to earn in the ratio of increased capital in short period.

It is also found that profitability performance of banks were affected by change in categorization criteria of provisioning of non-performing loans directives of Nepal Rastra Bank in which, provisioning criteria for non-performing loans were made additional strict, which resulted in shrink in net free profit and ultimately influenced to decline in return on equity ROE. As seen in table 4. All the sample bank's capital adequacy ratios were above the mandatory level of minimum 10 percent set by regulatory body Nepal Rastra Bank.

The average capital ratio of sample five banks during the study period was ranged from On the correlation analysis result, return on assets ROA was found to be correlated with gross domestic product growth rate GDPR and capital adequacy ratio CAR positively with correlation value of 0. This result shows that higher the gross domestic growth rate, higher will be the return on assets of the commercial banks in Nepal and vice versa.

This study is consistent with the empirical study of Manandhar et al. But inconsistent with Bhattarai High fluctuation on gross domestic product growth rate GDPR from o. Return on equity ROE was found to be negatively correlated with other independent variables except with inflation rate but ROE is correlated with INF in same direction with strong strength association 0. While testing the significance of these coefficients of correlation, correlation between ROE and INF only found significant at 0.

Correlation analysis result shows that higher the inflation rate, higher would be the return on equity rate and vice versa. There are mixed result in the empirical studies conducted on earlier periods.

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